The controversy over Cristiano Ronaldo’s red card against Ireland has put FIFA in a difficult position. Experts say a three-match suspension is highly unlikely, given CR7’s iconic status and influence ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
The elbowing incident on Dara O’Shea during Portugal’s 0-2 loss to Ireland has sparked a heated debate that shows no sign of dying down. Cristiano Ronaldo, at age 40, one of the last global icons alongside Lionel Messi, suddenly faces the possibility of sitting out up to three matches if FIFA applies the standard disciplinary measures for violent conduct. Such a situation is unprecedented in his 226 international appearances, and many argue that a maximum suspension is highly unlikely.
After VAR confirmed Ronaldo’s elbow as a reviewable offense, referee Glenn Nyberg upgraded the decision from a yellow to a straight red card. This marked a rare milestone in CR7’s international career: his first sending off for Portugal. But the controversy did not end there. In the hours following the match, debates erupted across social media, international football commentary channels, and expert forums.
Too influential for a “full penalty”?
The main question in recent days has been whether FIFA would actually suspend Ronaldo for three matches—the equivalent of two group-stage games at the World Cup—if Portugal qualifies for North America.
Many analysts believe this is highly improbable. Jan Aage Fjortoft, former Norwegian striker and Premier League veteran, offered a striking analogy: “Suspending Ronaldo for three matches would be like barring Jack Nicholson from attending the Oscars. A star of that caliber cannot be removed from football’s biggest stage.”
The comparison may be hyperbolic, but it underscores a real point: Ronaldo’s presence at the World Cup carries significance beyond sports. It impacts viewership, broadcasting rights, media coverage, and the tournament’s reputation. With the 2026 World Cup set to be the largest ever, missing one of the two greatest icons of this era could significantly affect the event’s draw.
Major sports media have echoed this sentiment, noting that FIFA faces a delicate decision: enforcing a “by-the-book” penalty could produce far greater media fallout than anticipated.
Divided opinions among fans
While analysts urge caution in imposing harsh sanctions, public opinion is split. Some argue FIFA should act firmly to ensure fairness. According to this view, fame or influence should not dictate penalties. Ronaldo’s swing of the arm constitutes violent conduct, and any other player committing a similar offense would likely receive a two- to three-match suspension. Granting CR7 leniency simply because of his status could set a dangerous precedent for world football.
Others, however, feel the incident occurred amid strong physical contact, and Ronaldo merely reacted instinctively to repeated challenges. In their view, there was no intent to injure, making a three-match suspension excessive. Additionally, Ronaldo has maintained a remarkably clean disciplinary record with the national team, which should be considered when evaluating the severity of the offense.
This clash of perspectives illustrates CR7’s global influence. Whether fans love or hate him, a single moment on the field can spark worldwide debate.
FIFA faces “dual pressure”
From FIFA’s perspective, the final decision is not immediate. Following standard procedures, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee will spend approximately three weeks reviewing footage, referee reports, player statements, and relevant regulations in the Disciplinary Code.
The law on violent conduct is clear: an elbow to an opponent typically results in a three-match suspension. However, there is room for discretion if the action is deemed impulsive, occurring in a heated contest, and not intentional.
This flexibility leads many experts to predict that Ronaldo will likely face only a one- or two-match ban, rather than the maximum.
FIFA also faces pressure due to the context of the 2026 World Cup. With 48 teams participating, this could be the last chance for fans to see Ronaldo and Messi together. Imposing a harsh penalty could directly reduce the tournament’s appeal. Marca, the Madrid-based sports outlet, called it “an unprecedentedly sensitive decision,” highlighting FIFA’s need to balance legal principles with fan expectations.
Portugal’s concern ahead of the World Cup
For the Portuguese national team, the timing of Ronaldo’s incident could not be worse. With one qualifying match remaining, a three-match ban would extend into the World Cup itself. For a squad aiming to progress deep into the tournament, Ronaldo remains an inspirational figure on and off the pitch. At 40, he may not play as frequently as before, but he is still the team’s spiritual leader and a symbol every teammate looks to before major competitions.
The Portuguese Football Federation has confirmed full cooperation with FIFA to ensure a fair review. They hope the maximum suspension will not be applied. According to sources, Portugal may submit a detailed report with video evidence showing O’Shea also used his arm during the clash. Nevertheless, the federation pledges to respect FIFA’s final decision.
The final chapter for Ronaldo at the World Cup
With the peak of his career behind him, the 2026 World Cup is widely seen as Ronaldo’s last chance to leave a lasting mark on international football. He came close to winning in 2006, faced bitter elimination in 2010 and 2014, struggled in Russia 2018, and did not surpass the quarterfinals in Qatar 2022.
Thus, the prospect of missing the group stage due to a momentary lapse in control is particularly concerning for Portuguese fans. Beyond the sporting impact, it would leave an unwanted “blemish” on the legacy of a player who has scored over 900 goals in his career and holds numerous international records.