An unprecedented situation is shaking African football: FIFA may have to organize a random draw to decide which team qualifies for the 2026 World Cup if Nigeria and Benin finish completely level on all tiebreakers after the final matchday.
The race in Group C of the African qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup has reached a boiling point. After nine rounds, Benin lead the group with 17 points, followed by South Africa with 15 and Nigeria with 14. Yet, all three nations still have a realistic chance of securing a direct ticket to the tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico next year.
What makes this scenario extraordinary is how the final matchday could push everything to the brink. Nigeria will visit Benin, while South Africa host Rwanda. The results of these two games could create one of the most bizarre qualification outcomes in World Cup history.
If Benin defeat Nigeria, they will automatically qualify. A draw would also work in Benin’s favor—provided South Africa fail to win. But if Nigeria win 2–1, matching the exact scoreline of their first-leg defeat, both teams would end up with the same number of points, identical goal difference, and even the same head-to-head record. In that case, the next tiebreaker would be… disciplinary points.
According to current statistics, Nigeria have collected 13 yellow cards over nine matches—one fewer than Benin. That razor-thin margin makes the situation extremely fragile: a single reckless challenge or unnecessary booking could cost Nigeria their World Cup dream.
Even more astonishing, if both teams also end up tied on disciplinary records—meaning identical numbers of yellow and red cards—FIFA regulations dictate that a random draw must be conducted to decide which team ranks higher. In other words, a World Cup ticket could literally come down to luck, not goals, tactics, or performance.
This potential outcome has sent African football fans into a frenzy. On social media, many Nigerian supporters have voiced outrage, arguing that letting “luck” determine qualification is unfair to the players’ efforts. Meanwhile, Benin’s fans are nervously hopeful, dreaming that fortune might smile upon them if everything finishes level.
Beyond the emotional rollercoaster, this situation also places FIFA in an awkward position. The organization, known for promoting fairness and transparency, might be forced to stage a public draw to select a World Cup participant—something unprecedented in modern football history.
Experts say this dramatic twist highlights the fierce competitiveness of Africa’s revamped qualification format. As teams grow stronger and more balanced, every goal, every foul, and even every yellow card can carry enormous weight.
If this “crazy scenario” actually unfolds, it will become one of the most memorable stories leading into the 2026 World Cup—a rare moment when destiny, not just skill, decides which nation gets to live its World Cup dream.